Can I retire at 65 ?
A probability, not a guess. Adjust the inputs and the odds update.
Monte Carlo sampling spread from the simulated market histories only. It excludes uncertainty in returns, inflation, lifespan, taxes, fees, and policy, so the true planning range is wider.
You could even step back as early as and still clear the bar.
Each one is re-run through the simulation, so the number is real, not a rule of thumb.
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Retiring at 65: the conventional case
Retiring at 65 is the conventional case, and it is the friendliest to your savings. Medicare eligibility starts this year, Social Security is at or near your claiming window, and penalty-free access to your retirement accounts is well behind you. The portfolio still has to last the rest of your life, so the order of good and bad market years matters, and that is what these simulations measure.
Most "can I retire" calculators hand you a single number and a yes or no. Real markets are messier than that. Some years are great, some are brutal, and the order they arrive in matters. This one runs your plan through 500 possible futures and tells you how often it works, so you can plan around the odds instead of a single guess.
How the numbers are made
Every time you change an input, we simulate your savings through 500 randomized market histories, drawing a different sequence of yearly returns each run. The share of runs where your money lasts to your planning age is the number at the top: the chance your money lasts.
Everything is in today's dollars. The return you pick is a real return, meaning after inflation, so you never have to guess at future price levels. Social Security or other income is counted only from the age it starts, so retiring before then has to be bridged by the portfolio alone.
Rather than planning to average life expectancy, which is close to a coin flip on longevity, we plan through the age you have only a 10% chance of outliving, using the Social Security Administration 2020 life table. The 4% rule (needing about 25 times your spending) is shown as a familiar baseline, but the chance your money lasts comes from the simulation.
Healthcare sits inside your yearly spending, so enter your total with insurance and out-of-pocket costs included. Retiring at 65 means reaching Medicare this year, which usually lowers the coverage cost you were carrying on your own, often one of the largest costs to plan around at this age. It does not model long-term care or big one-off medical bills, which can be very expensive late in life, so keep a separate cushion for those.
Confidence bands
| Under 25% | Very unlikely |
| 25 to 50% | Unlikely |
| 50 to 70% | Coin flip |
| 70 to 90% | Likely |
| 90% and up | Very likely |
Default assumptions
| Expected return, after inflation, before fees | 5% |
| Assumed annual investment fee | 0.25% |
| Net real return the plan compounds | 4.75% |
| Market volatility | 12% |
| Inflation | 2.5% |
| Planning horizon | the age you have a 10% chance of outliving |
| Withdrawal rate (baseline) | 4% |
| Confidence target | 80% |
| Simulations per run | 500 |
These are the assumptions behind every estimate here.
Common questions
Is this financial advice? +
No. This is a free educational tool to help you think through retirement, not advice about your specific situation. Talk to a qualified financial planner before you make any big decisions.
What does the percentage mean? +
It is the chance your money lasts: the share of 500 simulated market histories where your savings reached your planning age. An 80% result held up in about 400 of the 500 runs and fell short in the other 100. The returns are net of an assumed 0.25% annual investment fee, but the odds do not include taxes or future changes to Social Security.
Does Medicare change my spending at 65? +
Yes, usually for the better. Medicare eligibility starts at 65, which typically lowers the health-coverage cost you carried on your own before then. Enter your Medicare-era premiums and out-of-pocket costs as your yearly healthcare spend.
Should I claim Social Security at 65? +
You can, but waiting can pay off. Full retirement age is 66 to 67 for most people, and delaying past it up to 70 raises your benefit. The calculator lets you set the start age so you can compare claiming now against waiting.
Why run simulations instead of a single projection? +
Because the order of good and bad years matters. A rough stretch right after you retire can sink a plan that looks fine on an average return. Running many different market histories captures that risk in a way one average cannot.
Why plan through age you have a 10% chance of outliving instead of life expectancy? +
Average life expectancy is close to a coin flip, so planning to it means a roughly even chance of outliving your money. Instead this plans through the age you have only a 10% chance of reaching, using the Social Security Administration 2020 life table.
What return does this assume? +
It uses a real return, meaning after inflation, of 5% a year before costs. After an assumed 0.25% annual investment fee for fund and platform costs, the plan compounds at about 4.75% a year. That 5% is an average (arithmetic mean) of the yearly returns, and because markets rise and fall the growth you actually compound over time runs a little lower. It is a common middle-of-the-road figure for a diversified portfolio; more cautious planners use 3 to 4%.
Does it account for taxes? +
Not yet. It counts every dollar the same, so a dollar in a pre-tax 401(k) is treated like a dollar in a Roth. Real withdrawals from pre-tax accounts are taxed, so treat the result as a little optimistic on that front.
Does spending include healthcare? +
Yes. Enter your total yearly spending with healthcare inside it, including what you pay for insurance and out of pocket. If you retire before 65, that includes buying your own coverage until Medicare starts, which is often one of the largest early-retirement costs. It does not model long-term care or large one-off medical shocks, so keep a separate cushion for those; their cost can be very large late in life.
What is the 4% rule? +
A rule of thumb that you can withdraw about 4% of your savings in your first year of retirement, which works out to needing roughly 25 times your annual spending. It is shown as a baseline, but the chance your money lasts comes from the simulation, not the rule.