When can I retire?
The earliest age your plan clears the confidence bar. Adjust the inputs and it updates.
That's years from now. At that age your money lasts in % of the simulated futures.
On this plan, no retirement age up to reaches % confidence.
Why this calculator exists
"When can I retire?" usually gets answered with one number from one average return. Real markets are messier than that, and the years right after you stop working matter most. This one finds the earliest age your plan holds up across 500 possible futures, so the answer is the first age that actually works, not the first age that works on paper.
How the earliest age is found
Starting from your current age, we test each age in turn: simulate your savings through 500 randomized market histories and count how often the money lasts to your planning age. The earliest age that clears 80% of the time is your answer.
Everything is in today's dollars. The return you pick is a real return, meaning after inflation. Social Security or other income is counted only from the age it starts, so retiring before then has to be bridged by the portfolio alone.
Rather than planning to average life expectancy, which is close to a coin flip on longevity, we plan through the age you have only a 10% chance of outliving, using the Social Security Administration 2020 life table. The 4% rule is shown as a familiar baseline, but the earliest age comes from the simulation.
Short of the age you want? Adjust your savings, spending, or income and watch the earliest age move. To price a specific target age, open "Can I retire at X?", which re-runs each change (save more, spend less, part-time work, delay Social Security) through the simulation and shows the exact numbers that make that age work.
Common questions
How do you decide the earliest age I can retire? +
We scan upward from your current age and, at each age, run your plan through 500 simulated market histories. The earliest age where your money lasts to your planning age in at least 80% of them is the answer. Nothing is capped by an arbitrary age, only by how long your money can plausibly last.
Why an age range of confidence instead of a single yes or no? +
Because the order of good and bad years matters. A rough stretch right after you retire can sink a plan that looks fine on an average return. Running many market histories captures that risk, so the earliest age is the first one that holds up often enough, not just on paper.
Is this financial advice? +
No. This is a free educational tool to help you think through retirement, not advice about your specific situation. Talk to a qualified financial planner before you make any big decisions.
What return does this assume? +
It uses a real return, meaning after inflation, of 5%. That is a common middle-of-the-road figure for a diversified portfolio; more cautious planners use 3 to 4%.
Does spending include healthcare? +
Yes. Enter your total yearly spending with healthcare inside it. If you retire before 65, that includes buying your own coverage until Medicare starts, which is often one of the largest early-retirement costs.
What is the 4% rule? +
A rule of thumb that you can withdraw about 4% of your savings in your first year of retirement, which works out to needing roughly 25 times your annual spending. It is shown as a baseline, but the earliest age comes from the simulation, not the rule.